7 steps to mastering the business of superforecasting

"Predicting the future isn’t easy, especially in business. But Canadian psychologist Philip Tetlock says it’s a skill that can be cultivated to provide a more accurate picture of what lies ahead. Anyone who stays in business will face the problem of trying to see into the future. When you think about hiring a new employee, you ask: “Will we have enough new business to keep them occupied?” When you pitch for a new piece of business, you think: “How many hours will it take us to complete this job?” You have to forecast. Forecasting can seem like a dark art. Psychologist and political scientist Philip Tetlock insists not only that it is a skill, but also that you can get better at it. Over recent years, he has spent his time creating teams of forecasters that compete in – and win – forecasting tournaments funded by the US Government intelligence community. In the process, he has become perhaps the world’s leading expert on predicting the future. Now Tetlock has set out his forecasting techniques in a book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, co-authored with journalist Dan Gardner. Here are seven steps that Tetlock suggests can drive better forecasts – steps that any organisation can take to deal with its own forecasting challenges." Susan Muldowney, In the Black, 01 March 2016 Read more